5th Generation Fighter Modernization Capabilities Based Assessment

Customer: United States Air Force, United States Navy, United States Marine Corps, and Joint Strike Fighter Program Office (JSFPO).

Challenge: To identify the scope of 5th Generation Fighter (i.e., F-22 and F-35) tactical tasks, derived from key mission areas and required capabilities, that when assessed against DOD Analytic Agenda scenarios within the four phases of military conflict (i.e., Phase I/II Deter/Seize the Initiative, Phase III Dominate, and Phase IV Stabilize), would identify capability gaps and provide a focus for future 5th generation fighter modernization efforts.  The Capabilities Based Assessment (CBA) was needed in order to provide the foundation for Joint Capabilities Integration and Development System (JCIDS) documentation, beginning with an Initial Capabilities Document (ICD).  The study was challenging due to the joint nature of the CBA, the disparate stakeholders involved, and the number of missions being evaluated (12).  The classification level of the study, exacerbated by the lack of personnel across the Services with access into both aircraft programs, made this study significantly more challenging.

Approach: WBB conducted the CBA in four distinct phases using Joint Staff J-8 CBA Users Guide and Manual for the Operation of the JCIDS recommended approaches: 1) Selection/development of 5th Gen fighter scenarios; 2) Completion of a capability needs assessment – determined required tasks, conditions and standards); 3) Completion of a capability gap analysis (determined gaps in projected capability); and, 4) Completion of a non-materiel solutions analysis (determined if gaps can be mitigated through non-materiel means and recommend types of materiel solutions, if required). WBB worked with the 5th Generation Fighter community stakeholders, as well as the Joint Staff Force Application (FA) Functional Capability Board (FCB) Working Group to develop operations concepts, scenarios and vignettes based on approved Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) Defense Planning Scenarios (DPS).  This was a vital part of the CBA since it laid the foundation for the rest of the study.  The results of this portion of the CBA were socialized heavily to ensure stakeholder community buy-in.  WBB conducted extensive research into the required mission sets for each of the aircraft – finally gaining concurrence to use a General Officer approved JSF mission decomposition consisting of 12 missions.  The missions were further decomposed to determine tactical level tasks and associated measures of effectiveness/performance.  This provided the tasks, conditions and standards required to then assess whether there were gaps in the F-22 and F-35 ability to conduct the missions in the 2018 and beyond timeframe.  WBB used advanced hierarchy process, as well as brainstorming techniques, in an Integrated Product Team (IPT) environment to capture warfighter gap inputs and priorities.  WBB also conducted independent research and analysis to cross-walk potential gaps with those already documented in other JCIDS documents, Combatant Commander Integrated Priority Lists, etc.  This dual pronged approach to identifying gaps provided a much better analytical foundation for the identified gaps.  With the gaps identified, WBB worked with appropriate stakeholders to identify whether other systems could mitigate the gaps (alternative CONOPS) and then used collaborative brainstorming tools (ThinkTank) to create a list of potential non-materiel solutions.  A survey was used to determine the risk associated with each of the non-materiel solutions.  The result was a final list of gaps that required materiel solutions.

Value: The CBA results incorporated into the ICD currently being drafted will serve as the foundation for F-22 and F-35 modernization for the foreseeable future, including development of program roadmaps.  In addition, the CBA brought the F-22 and F-35 communities together as a single entity to look at 5th Gen fighter issues holistically across the Services, and not just from individual platform perspectives.